Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 0.186786 0.223319 0.266823 0.322951 0.394171 0.482510 0.601921
2025-06-15 0.140094 0.182652 0.239157 0.321348 0.440744 0.612629 0.888003
2025-06-22 0.109291 0.153102 0.216878 0.319985 0.489619 0.771665 1.309732
2025-06-29 0.083792 0.124500 0.188485 0.301816 0.510331 0.907388 1.809478
2025-07-06 0.058352 0.090150 0.142778 0.242056 0.439875 0.856424 1.941441
2025-07-13 0.048254 0.078163 0.130901 0.238600 0.476585 1.050542 2.867855
2025-07-20 0.041718 0.070774 0.125330 0.246127 0.543861 1.378272 4.711258
2025-07-27 0.036891 0.065407 0.122300 0.258817 0.635401 1.877653 8.408493
2025-08-03 0.032505 0.059930 0.117717 0.267063 0.725936 2.510645 15.250608
2025-08-10 0.028019 0.053311 0.109028 0.262220 0.778743 3.111461 25.752087
2025-08-17 0.023935 0.046728 0.098817 0.249686 0.800976 3.651986 41.307231
2025-08-24 0.021416 0.043050 0.094619 0.253366 0.892457 4.816315 85.276657
2025-08-31 0.019091 0.039554 0.090518 0.257928 1.007779 6.635423 218.128880
2025-09-07 0.017237 0.036789 0.087661 0.266176 1.161006 9.587482 751.588329
2025-09-14 0.015595 0.034210 0.084666 0.273250 1.330054 14.012378 3791.672654
2025-09-21 0.013758 0.030791 0.078366 0.264794 1.403684 18.121243 21102.621563
2025-09-28 0.011224 0.025167 0.064224 0.217975 1.165226 15.357303 21479.073326
2025-10-05 0.010207 0.023359 0.061357 0.218533 1.281615 21.425677 618517.034019
2025-10-12 0.009520 0.022304 0.060585 0.228459 1.500867 34.440341 NaN
2025-10-19 0.008980 0.021553 0.060624 0.242881 1.808525 61.152018 NaN
2025-10-26 0.008412 0.020617 0.059801 0.252995 2.117879 107.495430 NaN
2025-11-02 0.007719 0.019200 0.056925 0.250505 2.288969 162.764667 NaN
2025-11-09 0.007005 0.017611 0.053047 0.240264 2.344295 219.433490 NaN